With the worlds media gearing up for World Cup meltdown, we thought it poignant to take a look at the lighter side of the subject, and what it means to the investment world.
Having already written about the excessive hype surrounding the property investment aspect of sporting event related money making schemes, imagine our initial surprise at finding JP Morgan releasing a very elaborate synopsis using Quant methodology to predict that England are going to win the World Cup.(It is a large file so be patient if you click to view it.)
They do of course state that it should be taken with a pinch of salt, and there is little doubt that the whole thing has been created as a very cunning marketing ploy (either that or the people at JP Morgan have made enough money this year for their clients!).
One has to wonder though about the usage of one tool to predict the outcome of a non related event. Whilst it’s unlikely (I would hope anyway) that JP Morgan is busy predicting the future stock price fluctuation of Microsoft with the latest odds on the dogs from their high street bookie, it's a little bit like going to service a space shuttle with the tools provided with an IKEA wardrobe. You have some tools, - Yes. Correct ones for the job? - No.
Granted, UBS Wealth Management Research successfully predicted Italy would win the 2006 event, and recently suggested that Brazil will win the 2010 competition.
Using a somewhat more simplistic approach, (and quite likely slightly more cost effective and quicker), we took a survey of the staff here to see what IPINs in house prediction for World Cup success would be. After consulting our European and US offices, the conclusion was as follows.
Spain came out on top as most likely to win with just over 36%
Brazil second most likely with just over 21%
England predicted joint third with Argentina most likely to win with 10% each.
(The remaining results were split across the remaining World Cup participants.)
Do you agree? Will all the calculations of the biggest banking institutions in the world be correct, or public opinion from the investment property world? Have your say in the poll below!
Who do you think will win the World Cup in 2010? ( Poll Closed )
IPIN has members from 56 countries to date and readers from almost every country the world over, so the results should be interesting to say the least! Tell us who you think will win the World Cup!